pemifer Escreveu:A discussão das baterias e das matérias primas das baterias faz-me lembrar aquela no fórum GPL em que um fulano dizia que sabia muito bem do que estava a falar porque já tinha andado num Saxo elétrico.
Com certeza a tecnologia das baterias vai evoluir, digo eu...
Será que a Tesla vai fabricar baterias de lítio para sempre?
Eu lembro que a BYD utiliza baterias Iron-Phosphate e que já tem à alguns anos um carro que faz 300kms.
Mas como são chineses, não interessa...
Pemifer,
Este tema é um pouco paralelo ao tópico e eu não desejo discuti-lo muito aqui.
Mas é um tema bastante importante para a "Mobilidade eléctrica", pois como se sabe, as baterias dos EVs são o ponto crucial de qualquer "revolução eléctrica" que se perspective vir acontecer.
Estamos todos convencidos (e somos levados a isso pelas diversas marcas) que as baterias irão sempre baixar de preço ao mesmo tempo que aumentam as densidades energéticas, mas isto é algo um pouco contra-intuitivo até, pois assume-se que as baterias irão sempre baixar de preço ao mesmo tempo que a procura pelas mesmas aumenta exponencialmente.
Este não é o comportamento típico dos mercados.
Acredito que seja possível ganhar eficiências na produção das baterias pelos seus processos de fabrico e pelas melhorias na química. Mas atingido o limite não há hipótese alguma de os preços das baterias não ficarem na mão dos preços das matérias primas.
Há já vários indícios que a realidade não irá ser assim. A China provocou/tem provocado um autêntico terramoto nos mercados das matérias primas para baterias nos últimos tempos (e particularmente desde 2015).
Não há grandes dúvidas, para quem segue estes mercados, que este é um problema real e que poderá vir-se a manifestar nos próximos tempos (meses/anos) com impacto.
Eu diria até, que é um dos principais problemas das marcas que apostam em EVs, com a Tesla à cabeça claro, mas não só. Este problema afecta TODOS os fabricantes de baterias (e os seus consumidores) e TODAS as outras tecnologias de baterias conhecidas que se encontram em estudo/investigação usam Lítio de uma forma ou de outra.
Mas não é apenas o problema do "Lítio". O "Cobalto" usado em grande parte das baterias pode ser ainda
um problema maior.
Felizmente para a Tesla, as baterias que esta usa são NCA (Niquel, Cobalto e Alumínio) no cátodo e "sílicio/grafeno" no anodo. Esta química é a que usa MENOS quantidade de Cobalto (representa 9% do cátodo ou cerca de 0.22 kg/kWh). Nas LCO (Dióxido de Lítio e Cobalto) o cobalto representa 60% do cátodo ou cerca de 1.44 kg/kWh.
Sugiro a leitura do seguinte documento para se perceber melhor o assunto (como este há vários outros a alertar para o problema):
http://investorintel.com/technology-met ... nstraints/
For the last 10 years we’ve been deluged with news stories and investment analyses that extoll the virtues of lithium-ion batteries and speculate on the technology’s potential to change the world’s energy landscape forever. While the occasional curmudgeon like my colleague Jack Lifton questions the availability of enough lithium or flake graphite to satisfy soaring demand from the battery industry, everybody has overlooked or ignored the most critical mineral constraint – Cobalt.
It’s a truly gargantuan challenge. A Gigarisk!
(...)
Avicenne expects global battery production to climb to about 135 GWh per year by 2025 (from 50 GWh/year in 2014). Since Tesla, LG Chem, Foxconn, BYD and Boston Power are building new battery factories that will boost manufacturing capacity to about 140 GWh by 2020, one could argue that Avicenne’s forecast is overly conservative.
(...)
When I reflect on these numbers and the production dynamics, I can’t help but believe the lithium-ion battery industry is overdue for a close encounter of the worst kind with the mining industry.
The problem is that flake graphite is the only critical battery mineral that’s mined as a primary product. Lithium and cobalt are lesser co-products or minor by-products; and increased demand for co-products and by-products can’t move the needle for mining companies without additional sustained demand for their primary products.
In 2014 and 2015, China accounted for 65% of global graphite production. China is currently pursuing aggressive policies to clean up and consolidate its mining industry. It has also imposed a 17% non-refundable value added tax and a 20% export duty on graphite. These tax policies are designed to increase value-added manufacturing in China by giving Chinese industries a major competitive edge in the sale of products like batteries that use large amounts of graphite.
At present, the battery industry uses about 35% of global flake graphite production. Over the next 10 years, that percentage will increase to over 75% unless additional resources are brought into production. Given the usefulness of graphite in a wide variety of essential industries, I have a hard time accepting the idea that a single sector like the battery industry can lock down 75% of available supply and do so at attractive prices, much less lower prices.
Lithium production is SQM’s (the world’s largest lithium producer) most profitable operating segment, but SQM’s operations in its Atacama Saltpeter Deposit would not make economic sense without the potassium products that generate about two-thirds of its revenue from brine operations. Therefore any decision to increase lithium production from the Salar de Atacama will be contingent on the strength of the potassium market because SQM can’t produce more lithium without also producing a lot more potassium. If increasing potassium supplies will depress prices for those products, the game won’t be worth the candle.
At present, the battery industry uses 30 to 35 percent of global lithium production. Over the next 10 years, that percentage will increase to around 70 percent. I have a hard time accepting the idea that a single sector like the battery industry can lock down 70 percent of the available lithium supply and do so at attractive prices, much less lower prices.
94% of global cobalt supplies come from nickel and copper miners that produce cobalt as a minor by-product.
(...)
Nickel and copper prices are both wallowing at multi-year lows due to decreased demand from China. Under those conditions, increased demand for minor by-product can’t possibly drive facilities expansion decisions. The bottom line is that the cobalt supply chain is entirely dependent on global demand for nickel and copper.
In my view the battery industry is careening toward a natural resource cliff at 120 mph while fiddling with the touch-screen and tweeting about its unlimited potential. Whenever increasing demand crosses swords with inflexible supply, the inevitable outcomes are chronic shortages and substantially higher mineral prices.
In the lithium-ion battery industry, materials costs are 50 to 70 percent of total manufacturing costs; one of the highest ratios on the planet. Prevailing green mythology holds that lithium-ion battery prices will fall dramatically as anticipated production rates soar due to gigafactories and undefined “economies of scale.”
the difference between a known mineral resource and a reliable factory feedstock was a couple decades of exploration, permitting, development and construction work, coupled with a couple billion dollars in capital spending.
Notwithstanding the prevailing green mythology, I’ve never met a miner, or for that matter a mining investor, who was incentivized to embark on a new project by expectations of lower future product prices. They’re all in it for the money.
Given the current production dynamics for both lithium and cobalt, I’m firmly convinced that increased demand can only lead to higher raw material prices and excruciating shortages. Since most competitive users of lithium and cobalt are far less sensitive to raw material prices than battery manufacturers, it’s certain that they’ll protect their critical supply chains and the battery industry will either have to pay up or do without.
It doesn’t matter how big your battery factory is if you don’t have a rock solid supply chain for your critical minerals.
Gandalf the White
ZX Spectrum
